Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(1:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to LV 38, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-84-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.32 EP
54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model