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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.47 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP