Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(13:09) 5-J.Townsend punts 22 yards to KC 35, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.42 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model