Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(5:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 29 yards to IND 37, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.43 EP
57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model