Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(6:06) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to IND 18, Center-45-M.Overton. 80-C.Rogers to IND 27 for 9 yards (38-C.Reavis).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.73 EP
69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model