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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 2-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.54 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP