4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 4-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.81 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 19, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model