Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 79

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(2:41) 2-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to JAX 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 13-R.Greene to JAX 32 for 8 yards (28-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model