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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to IND 8, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on JAX-38-C.Reavis, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at IND 8.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.38 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP