Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(5:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to IND 25, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.92 EP
55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model