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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 12

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 4-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.28 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model