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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 85-E.Ebron right end to JAX 32 for -1 yards (50-Tel.Smith, 44-M.Jack). FUMBLES (50-Tel.Smith), RECOVERED by JAX-44-M.Jack at JAX 40. 44-M.Jack to JAX 40 for no gain (45-R.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.73 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model