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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 97

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to JAX 40, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.68 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 97, worth -6.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 53, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model