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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 1

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:32) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 20-J.Wilkins to JAX 1 for no gain (91-Y.Ngakoue).

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 1, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model