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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 73

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 3-C.Wadman punts 57 yards to CIN 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP