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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(:34) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.20 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model