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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 38

Denver Broncos 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 3-C.Wadman punts 23 yards to CIN 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.35 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP