Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Denver Broncos 21

(6:41) 10-K.Huber punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.84 EP
60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model