4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 49

Denver Broncos 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 3-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to CIN 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.45 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model