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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 47

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 10-K.Huber punts 21 yards to DEN 26, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.05 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model