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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 43

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 3-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to CIN 5, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.44 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP