Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 80

Denver Broncos 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 3-C.Wadman punts 43 yards to CIN 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-35-D.Thomas at CIN 33. 35-D.Thomas to CIN 33 for no gain (12-A.Erickson). Penalty on CIN-88-J.Franks, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.64 EP
58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model