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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 32

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model