4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 39

Cleveland Browns 13 – Houston Texans 29

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 18-D.Ratley pushed ob at HOU 37 for 2 yards (22-A.Colvin).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.11 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP