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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 39

Houston Texans 29 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 8-T.Daniel punts 33 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.26 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP