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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 20

Houston Texans 26 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 7-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.71 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 20, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model