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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 36

Cleveland Browns 7 – Houston Texans 26

What Actually Happened

(9:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 85-D.Njoku (32-T.Mathieu).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model