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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 58

Houston Texans 26 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 8-T.Daniel punts 52 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-38-G.Howell.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.07 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model