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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 16

Houston Texans 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. Penalty on CLE-26-D.Kindred, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.10 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model