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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 30

Houston Texans 20 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:05) 7-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.74 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model