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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 24

Houston Texans 17 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.76 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model