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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 4-S.Koch punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.89 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model