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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to BAL 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 27-C.Jones to BAL 29 for 4 yards (83-R.Gage; 55-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model