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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 54

Baltimore Ravens 26 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 8-L.Jackson left guard to BAL 48 for 2 yards (27-D.Kazee; 97-G.Jarrett).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.58 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model