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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 29

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.37 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP