Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Baltimore Ravens 16

(14:13) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to BAL 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model