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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP