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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to ATL 33, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Hardy pushed ob at BAL 49 for 18 yards (49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.55 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP