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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(13:21) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch pass deep middle to 10-C.Moore to ATL 25 for 21 yards (21-D.Trufant).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.23 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model