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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 91

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:55) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to GB 41, Center-46-A.Brewer. 23-J.Alexander pushed ob at ARI 35 for 24 yards (26-Bra.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -3.62 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.48 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 48, worth -2.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model