4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 88

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to ARI 46, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 46 for no gain (27-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.97 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 88, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model