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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 53

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 2-A.Lee punts 37 yards to GB 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-29-C.Edmonds. PENALTY on GB-85-R.Tonyan, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at GB 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.12 EP
KICK -2.39 EP
  • 13% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 87% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model