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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 31

Green Bay Packers 17 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.12 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model