Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 17 – Arizona Cardinals 20

(1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-J.Graham to GB 37 for 7 yards (43-H.Reddick).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

What Happened

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.97 EP
52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -2.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model