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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 6-J.Scott punts 31 yards to ARI 35, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-93-R.Gilbert.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP