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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 2-A.Lee punts 48 yards to GB 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 23-J.Alexander.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP