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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 53

Green Bay Packers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 6-J.Scott punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.05 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -2.12 EP
  • 13% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 87% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model