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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 13

Washington Commanders 20 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.66 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model