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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 38

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(3:13) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to DAL 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.83 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -2.11 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP