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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 17 at the 53

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to WAS 3, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-53-J.March-Lillard.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.03 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model